Providing institutional investors and companies with a unique perspective on the opportunities and risks presented by China's economic developments and changes in US-China relations
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With 40 years of experience, Andy Rothman, founder of Sinology LLC, has a unique perspective on China. Bio
With 40 years of experience, Andy Rothman, founder of Sinology LLC, has a unique perspective on China. Bio
Andy Rothman provides advice to institutional investors and companies on the opportunities and risks presented by China’s economy, and on the impact of changes in US-China relations. He collaborates with Julia Zhu, his China-based research associate for more than 20 years.
Andy is a member of the Advisory Council for the Asia Society of Northern California, and is a member of the board of directors of the Coral Tree Education Foundation. He is a frequent speaker at conferences and board meetings, on topics such as prospects for the Chinese economy; US-China relations; China-Taiwan relations; and the global impact of China’s economy.
In 2000, Andy began his private sector career, helping institutional investors and companies understand China’s rapidly changing economic environment. For 14 years, he was the Shanghai-based China macro strategist for CLSA, an institutional brokerage and investment group. After living and working in China for more than 20 years, in 2014 Andy moved to California to become the China strategist for Matthews Asia, one of the largest, active, US-based investors in China’s equity markets. His clients included global wealth managers, pension funds, endowments, family offices, private banks, hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds.
Andy’s 17-year, China-focused career as a US Foreign Service Officer included serving as the Taiwan desk officer at the State Department in the mid-90s, when China fired missiles near Taiwan. His final diplomatic role was head of the macroeconomics and domestic policy office at the American embassy in Beijing.
Andy first went to China as a student in 1980, just a few years after Mao’s death and the end of the Cultural Revolution. In 1984 he began his diplomatic career in Guangzhou, as Deng Xiaoping launched his economic and social reforms. He also attended China’s first rock concert, by Wham!
Print Interviews
Print Interviews
John Authers' Opinion Column / Bloomberg
Is the Trade War Already Over? A Look at How Policy Could Unfold / Barron's
Could China's Economy Wriggle out of Danger? It's up to Xi and Trump / Barron's
China Wakes up to New Trade Test as Trump Deploys 10% Tariff / Asia Nikkei
New Trump Tariff Impact on China Likely Overestimated / Forbes
Why Xi Jinping Changed His Mind on China's Fiscal Stimulus / Financial Times
Behind Xi Jinping's Pivot on Broad China Stimulus / Wall Street Journal
Videos and Podcasts
Videos and Podcasts
Outlook for China / CNBC
China's Economic Challenges / SOAS China Institute Podcast
Trump Tariffs and China's Domestic Demand / CNBC
China's Prospects after Xi's Meeting with Entrepreneurs / CNBC
Announcements from China lately signal a ‘beginning’ of policy correction to restore confidence / CNBC
China's latest policy measures are a good sign that the government is becoming 'less stubborn' / CNBC
Can China’s Economy Overcome Xi's Stubbornness? / Matthews Asia
Research Reports
Research Reports
April 14, 2025
Chinese entrepreneurs in the city of Xiamen told me they aren’t mad at the US after Trump imposed tariffs. They are bewildered.
March 20, 2025
Investors and corporate directors should be paying more attention to China, especially now that Xi Jinping has made revival of consumption his top political priority.
A New Trump Memo Could Disrupt Investment & Commerical Ties with China
February 22, 2025
Investors and directors should pay careful attention to Trump's new "America First Investment Policy," which has the potential to significantly disrupt ties with China.
Andy Rothman Interview with Alpine Macro
February 12, 2025
What does a bullish China story look like?
A Xi Jinping Breakthrough to Restore Confidence
February 18, 2025
A February 17 speech by Xi Jinping to China’s leading entrepreneurs may be the confidence-restoring step we’ve been waiting for to revitalize domestic demand.
Forget About Trump Tariffs: It's All up to Beijing
February 12, 2025
We are all so focused on Trump’s next China tariff move that we may lose sight of the fact that Xi Jinping’s decisions on his domestic economic policies are far more important for investors and businesses.
A Trump China Tax Won't Fix Fentanyl
January 31, 2025
Beijing cooperates more on narcotics - and on most other issues - when there is constructive bilateral engagement, and cooperates less when Washington takes a punitive approach. Moreover, tariffs will not put significant pressure on China’s economy, and will raise prices for American consumers and manufacturers who will pay the new tax.
January 22, 2025
First impressions are that America has elected its dealmaker in chief, rather than “tariff man.” This bodes well for economic and political relations with China, although it’s impossible to have a high degree of confidence in forecasting the president’s intentions.
August 2, 2024
Four reasons why Xi Jinping will eventually overcome his stubbornness and make the changes necessary to put China back on track to reach its potential growth rate.
May 10, 2024
There are two important questions investors should be asking about China. First, the Chinese economy is doing fairly well, so why are Chinese entrepreneurs and households so pessimistic, and what could turn that around? Second, will the political relationship between Washington and Beijing remain tense after the U.S. elections, and how much will that matter to the Chinese economy? In this Sinology, I offer my perspective on both questions.
For speaking engagements, please contact Chartwell Speakers: https://www.chartwellspeakers.com/speaker/andy-rothman/
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